R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

06/01/2017
14th EU-REAL Conference

Paper submission deadline for the 14th EU-REAL Conference in Coimbra, Portugal
More Info


Calendar

06/30/2017
28th PAPAIOS Meeting

Paper submission deadline for the 28th PAPAIOS Conference in Osaka, Japan
More Info


Calendar

07/01/2017
64th NARSC Conference

Paper submission deadline for the 64th NARSC in Vancouver, Canada
More Info




NEWS

News

Renato S. Vieira awarded the inaugural Werner Baer Fellowship
05/01/2017

News

Andre F. T. Avelino recognized as the Philip R. Israilevich Distinguished Research Fellow
04/20/2017

News

NARSC 2016 Graduate Student-Led Paper Competition: winners Esteban Lopez and Leonardo Bonilla
11/12/2016

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: many approaches, many limitations and a compromise
Avelino, A. and Hewings, G.
REAL 17-T-1

Publications

What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3

Publications

Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - May
Released: 5/28/2017

Reports

Illinois Job Index - May
Released: 5/28/2017

Reports

MSA Job Report -May
Released: 5/28/2017

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - June
Released: 06/18/2017

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - January
Released: 1/25/2017

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2017

NEXT SEMINAR: TBA

When:

TBA


Where:

TBA


More Information and Schedule:

On this page



Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - May

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment decrease 6,100 jobs by April 2018. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Education & health (13,800 more jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 44,100 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released:5/28/2017)


Illinois Job Report - May

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois lost 7,200 jobs in April 2017. The sectors that gained jobs were Education & health (2,600 more jobs), Manufacturing (1,900 more jobs) and Information (1,300 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs in March in Illinois were Trade, transportation & utilities (7,100 less jobs), Leisure & hospitality (2,400 less job) and Construction (4,500 less jobs).

- In April, Illinois’s official unemployment rate was 4.7% while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.20%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 5.4%, another 321,200 jobs need to be created.

- The Nation added 211,000 jobs at a rate of 0.14% in April, compared with a revised 79,000 job gain in April 2016. Growth in three sectors, namely Leisure & hospitality (55,000 more jobs), Professional & business services (39,000 more jobs) and Education & health (41,000 more jobs) were the main reasons. Information respectively lost 7,000.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) added 11,500 jobs in April, compared to a revised 22,800 employment loss in March.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for every sector except Information, Financial Activities, and Leisure & hospitality.

See the full report (Released: 5/28/2017)


MSA Job Report - May

- Illinois Rural area added 4,600 jobs at 0.63% this month, compared to a revised 7,900-job loss in March 2017. At the same time, Metro lost 11,800 jobs at -0.22% in April, compared to a revised 200-job gain in the previous month. Two out of ten MSAs posted employment growth. Consequently, the 7,200-job loss in Illinois was mainly driven by decrease in the Metro area.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in April was recorded for Metro -East (8th to 2nd). In the 12-month growth league table, Rockford remained in the last place while Kankakee remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Professional & business services had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (1,500 more jobs) in April, while Leisure & hospitality had the greatest decline (6,100 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in March 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 11.57%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -3.30%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 0.27% job gain by April 2018 (11,300 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Financial Activities (7,700 more jobs at 2.67%) but the greatest decline would be for Trade, transportation & utilities (5,600 less jobs at -0.67%).

See the full report (Released: 5/28/2017)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - June  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 96.7 in April from 96.3 in March. The rise is attributed to positive job growth in manufacturing and to an increase in nationwide economic activities measured by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).

See the full report (Released: 06/18/2017)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - January

According to the forecast for November 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 12/25/2016)






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