R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

02/09/2018
REAL Seminar Series

This week: Dusan Paredes
More Info


Calendar

02/23/2018
11th AERUS Meeting

Paper submission deadline for the 11th AERUS in Morgantown, WV
More Info


Calendar

03/01/2018
49th MCRSA Meeting

Paper submission deadline for the 49th MCRSA in Kansas City, MO
More Info




NEWS

News

Dr. Norihiko Yamano received his PhD in the December Convocation cerimony
12/16/2017

News

Renato S. Vieira awarded the inaugural Werner Baer Fellowship
05/01/2017

News

Andre F. T. Avelino recognized as the Philip R. Israilevich Distinguished Research Fellow
04/20/2017

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

Do crop insurance programs preclude their recipients from adapting to new climate conditions?
Chen Z. and Dall'erba, S.
REAL 17-T-2

Publications

The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: many approaches, many limitations and a compromise
Avelino, A. and Hewings, G.
REAL 17-T-1

Publications

What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - January
Released: 1/28/2018

Reports

Illinois Job Index - January
Released: 1/28/2018

Reports

MSA Job Report - January
Released: 1/28/2018

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - January
Released: 01/18/2018

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - January
Released: 1/11/2018

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Spring 2018

NEXT SEMINAR: February 9th

When:

Friday, 2-3pm


Where:

323 Mumford Hall


More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Dusan Paredes
(Associate Professor, Universidad Catolica del Norte)

Housing Demolition and Property Tax Delinquency:
Evidence from Detroit




International Network


EU-REAL REGIOlab REGIOlab




Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - January

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase of 10,000 jobs by December 2018. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Education & health (12,100 more jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 65,700 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released:1/28/2018)


Illinois Job Report - January

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois added 1,500 jobs in December 2017. The sectors that gained jobs were Government (4,100 more jobs), Construction (2,200 more jobs) and Other Services (2,600 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs in October in Illinois were Professional & business services (3,100 less jobs), Financial Activities (2,600 less job) and Education & health (2,300 less jobs).

- In December, Illinois’s official unemployment rate was 4.8% while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.88%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 4.8%, another 367,900 jobs need to be created.

- The Nation added 148,000 jobs at a rate of 0.10% in December, compared with a revised 252,000-job gain in November 2017. There were growth in three sectors, namely Construction (30,000 more jobs), Education & health (28,000 more jobs) and Leisure & hospitality (29,000 more jobs).

- The RMW added 22,100 jobs in December after a revised 15,700-job gain in November 2017.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Construction, Information, and Other Services.

See the full report (Released: 1/28/2018)


MSA Job Report - January

- Illinois Rural area added 10,900 jobs at 1.51% in December 2017, compared to a revised 700-job gain in November 2017. At the same time, Metro lost 9,400 jobs at -0.18% in December, compared to a revised 2,400-job gain in the previous month. Five out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 1,500-job gain in Illinois was driven by increase in rural areas.

- The most remarkable upward move in December was recorded for Bloomington-Normal (10th to 1st). In the 12-month growth league table, Decatur dropped to the last place while Kankakee remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Manufacturing had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (1,100 more jobs) in December, while Professional & business services had the greatest decline (5,000 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 11.13%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -2.00%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a -0.81% job loss by December 2018 (33,500 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Education & health (5,900 more jobs at 0.92%) but the greatest decline would be for T Professional & business services (12,400 less jobs at -0.63%).

See the full report (Released:1/28/2018)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - January  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 97.0 in November from 101.1 in October. The decrease is mainly attributed to the negative nonmanufacturing job growth and a decrease in nationwide economic activities measured by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).

See the full report (Released: 01/18/2018)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - January

According to the forecast for September 2018, Decatur is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 1/11/2018)






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