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contact info

Director: Geoffrey J. D. Hewings; hewings@illinois.edu
Location: 607 S. Matthews; Urbana, IL 61801-3671
Phone/Fax: 217-333-4740 (phone); 217-244-9339 (fax)

Welcome to R | E | A | L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.

REAL's mission is to provide timely, high quality analytical economic information for a variety of uses such as public policy decision making by public sector agencies and for strategic marketing in the private sector. REAL's capabilities revolve around comprehensive state and metropolitan models that integrate econometric and input-output analysis to provide for both impact and forecasting analyses.

While REAL's primary focus has been on the economies of the Midwest, REAL has collaborated in the development of models for several regions on the east coast. In addition, two models have been constructed for states in Brazil and a third is under construction. A model for the Jakarta Metropolitan region is also under construction.

REAL draws its staff from cooperating institutions and advanced graduate students in the fields of economics, geography, urban and regional planning, computer science and mathematics. Many of the projects the students work on then become the basis for thesis and dissertations.

Monitoring the Economy

- Illinois Economic Review Report - Januray: Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.

----The gap between the national shadow unemployment rates and the official unemployment rates widened since 2010, when the US economy was believed to begin recover from the previous recession. The recovery is not as optimistic as the administration claims.

----The same gap for Illinois did not widen in recent years, although the size had been continuously signficant

----The employment forecast predicts that the current job growth rate would slightly increase in the upcoming year. TTU, Professional & business services and Education & health will be the major driving forces of future job growth as they had been in the last year. Construction, Financial Services and Government are predicted to lose jobs

----Given the recovery barometer and the employment growth forecast, Illinois is most likely to recover to its previous employment peak observed in Nov 2000 within 8-10 years

----Chicago had the most significant 12- month growth among the Illinois MSAs but Springfield overall had made the most progress towards recovering to its previous employment peak (87.86% recovery in 2013 November) more (Released: 1-30-2014)

- IL Job Report - January: Illinois lost 3,200 jobs in December 2013, compared with a 10,700 job gain in November 2013. Compared to December 2012, Illinois has added 62,200 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 8,200 jobs per month.

----Illinois and RMW growth rates moved to negative in December. This is the first time since May for Illinois, while the growth rate for US is the lowest monthly rate for 2013.

----The December growth performance of Illinois is the second most disappointing in 2013, after March 2013. (March:-0.28%, December: -0.05%). Recession in the construction sector contributes the most to slowing of the growth of Illinois, although this sector usually undergoes more fluctuation than the others. more (Released: 1-30-2014)

- MSA Job Report -January: Chicago added 3,500 jobs at 0.08% in December 2013, compared to a revised 4,800 job gain last month. Meanwhile, Downstate shed 6,700 jobs at -0.27%, compared to a revised 5,900 job gain in November.

----The total number of jobs in Illinois is about 5.9 million, and nearly 90% of them are in Illinois Metro. What’s more, 80% of Illinois Metro jobs are located in Chicago Metro region.

----In the 12-month growth table, Chicago is the only MSA with significant job growth, while other MSAs experienced either little growth or negative growth. Chicago recovery is notably driven by Transportation, Trade and Utilities (TTU) and Education & health. These sectors (1) have the highest shares in total non-farm employment, and (2) posted positive growth with the greatest sizes (according to the monthly change jobs), paralleling trends in the national economy.

----Illinois’s comparative recovery performance is disappointing – its annual average growth rate started as being higher than both RMW and nation in 2010, then to being equal to RMW but lower than nation, but now is lower than both.

----The slight loss of Illinois jobs this month is mainly accounted for by Illinois Rural.

----Illinois Downstate annual average growth rate is negative for the first time in 3 years since recovery resumed in 2010.The slight loss of Illinois jobs this month is mainly accounted for by Illinois Rural. more (Released: 1-30-2014)

-The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - December: The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 100.5 in December from 97.3 in November. The increase is attributed to positive job growth in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing and the improvement of retail activities in the Chicago area. more (Released: 02-18-2014)

- MSA Business Index and Forecast - July: According to the one-year-ahead forecast, MSA Bloomington, Champaign, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline, Peoria, Rockford and Springfield are likely to perform better than Chicago while MSA Decatur and Kankakee are likely to perform worse than Chicago. more (Released: 07-15-2013)

- Housing Tax incentive: While 84,559 homebuyers in Illinois put in a claim for the Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit, only 25,504 sales were actually boosted by the incentive more (Released: 09-21-2010)

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