R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

09/29/2017
REAL Seminar Series

This week: Jamilly Dias and Daniela Lima
More Info


Calendar

09/18/2017
7th SHAIO

7th Spanish Input-Output Analysis Conference Sep 18-20 in Merida, Mexico
More Info


Calendar

10/15/2017
57th WRSA Conference

Paper submission deadline for the 57th WRSA in Pasadena, CA
More Info




NEWS

News

Renato S. Vieira awarded the inaugural Werner Baer Fellowship
05/01/2017

News

Andre F. T. Avelino recognized as the Philip R. Israilevich Distinguished Research Fellow
04/20/2017

News

NARSC 2016 Graduate Student-Led Paper Competition: winners Esteban Lopez and Leonardo Bonilla
11/12/2016

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

Do crop insurance programs preclude their recipients from adapting to new climate conditions?
Chen Z. and Dall'erba, S.
REAL 17-T-2

Publications

The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: many approaches, many limitations and a compromise
Avelino, A. and Hewings, G.
REAL 17-T-1

Publications

What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - August
Released: 8/28/2017

Reports

Illinois Job Index - August
Released: 8/28/2017

Reports

MSA Job Report - August
Released: 8/28/2017

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - September
Released: 09/18/2017

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - January
Released: 1/25/2017

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2017

NEXT SEMINAR: September 29th

When:

Fridays, 2-3pm


Where:

323 Mumford Hall


More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Jamilly Dias dos Santos
(PhD Student, Federal University of Bahia)

TBA


Daniela Lima Ramos
(PhD Student, Federal University of Bahia)

TBA




Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - August

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase 19,900 jobs by July 2018. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Professional & business services (23,900 more jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 63,800 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released:8/28/2017)


Illinois Job Report - August

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois added 2,100 jobs in July 2017. The sectors that gained jobs were Professional & business services (6,200 more jobs), Leisure & hospitality (4,000 more jobs) and Government (1,800 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs in July in Illinois were Education & health (3,200 less jobs), Trade, transportation & utilities (3,700 less job) and Construction (1,800 less jobs).

- In July, Illinois’s official unemployment rate was 4.8% while its shadow unemployment rate was 10.22%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 4.6%, another 390,300 jobs need to be created.

- The Nation added 209,000 jobs at a rate of 0.14% in July, compared with a revised 231,000-job gain in June 2017. There was growth in three sectors, namely Leisure & hospitality (62,000 more jobs), Professional & business services (49,000 more jobs) and Education & health (54,000 more jobs).

- The RMW added 25,900 jobs in July after a revised 44,800-job gain in June 2017.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for Construction, Trade, transportation & utilities and Other services.

See the full report (Released: 8/28/2017)


MSA Job Report - August

- Illinois Rural area lost 600 jobs at -0.09% this month, compared to a revised 9,100-job loss in June 2017. At the same time, Metro added 2,700 jobs at 0.05% in July, compared to a revised 15,500-job gain in the previous month. Five out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 2,100-job loss in Illinois was mainly driven by increase in the Metro area.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in July was recorded for Peoria (9th to 2nd). In the 12-month growth league table, Decatur dropped to the last place while Springfield climbed to the first place.

- In Chicago, Leisure & hospitality had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (1,900 more jobs) in July, while Education & health had the greatest decline (1,400 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 11.96%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Decatur has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -1.49%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 1.72% job gain by July 2018 (71,700 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Professional & business services (42,300 more jobs at 5.49%) but the greatest decline would be for Construction (1,000 less jobs at -0.67%).

See the full report (Released: 8/28/2017)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - September  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 97.1 in July from 96.9 in June. The rise is mainly attributed to the positive non-manufacturing job growth in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 09/18/2017)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - January

According to the forecast for November 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 12/25/2016)






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