R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

10/04/2016
REAL Seminar Series

This week: Lisa Graff and Andre Avelino
More Info


Calendar

10/04/2016
REAL Workshop

Assessing the Economic Consequences of Floods: from stock damages to economic impacts

Calendar

11/08/2016
NARSC 2016

Annual North American Regional Science Conference
More Info




NEWS

News

University of Extremadura awards Dr. Hewings a Doctor Honoris Causa
09/22/2016

News

The First China-REAL Meeting (CREAL 2016)
January 14-15, 2016, Beijing, China

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.


News

R|E|A|L Virtual Yearbook




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2

Publications

Effects of a reduction in employers' Social Security contributions: Evidence from Spain
Campoy-Munoz, P.; Cardenete, M.; Delgado, M. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-1

Publications

A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of the Impact of Federally-Funded Investments in Science, Research and Technology in Arizona
Lim, J. and Dall'Erba, S.
REAL 15-T-11



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - August
Released: 08/29/2016

Reports

Illinois Job Index - August
Released: 08/29/2016

Reports

MSA Job Report - August
Released: 08/18/2016

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - September
Released: 09/18/2016

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - August
Released: 08/25/2016

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2016

NEXT SEMINAR: October 4th, 2016

When:

Tuesdays 3:00pm - 4:30pm


Where:

Mumford Hall, room 428


More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Lisa Graff
(ISWS)

CHAMP and Assessing Flood Risk Using GIS Tools


Andre Avelino
(PhD Student, ACE)

[WORKSHOP] Assessing the economic consequences of floods:
from stock damages to economic impacts





Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - August

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase between 24,300 and 30,800. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Professional & business services (21,600 more jobs), while the largest decline would happen for Government (4,100 less jobs).

- By June 2016, Chicago has recovered 376,400 jobs, or 134.99% to all the jobs it lost during the recession.

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 28,700 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released: 08/29/2016)


Illinois Job Report - August

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois has recovered from the 2007 recession in terms of the number of total nonfarm jobs. It now has 28,700 more jobs than in December 2007.

- In 2016, Illinois had employment growth for five months and employment declines for three months.

- The nation added 255,000 jobs at 0.18% in July, compared to a mere 292,000 job growth in June. Growth in three sectors, namely Leisure & hospitality (45,000 more jobs), Government (38,000 more jobs) and Professional & business services (70,000 more jobs) are the main reasons.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) had the greatest monthly employment growth since October 2015. It added 53,900 jobs, compared to a revised 37,000 employment growth in June.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Information, Trade, transportation & utilities, Construction, and Manufacturing.

- Illinois’s Construction sector experienced a significant job loss (2,700 less jobs at -1.24%) in July. Meanwhile, the Other Services sector experienced a significant job growth (4,200 more jobs at 1.65%).

- Illinois’s official unemployment rate in July was 5.8%, while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.46%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 6.2%, another 250,000 jobs need to be created.

See the full report (Released: 08/29/2016)


MSA Job Report - August

- Illinois Rural area added 2,300 jobs at 0.31% this month, compared to a revised 7,600 job loss in June 2016. In contrast, Metro added 9,300 jobs at 0.18% in July, compared to a revised 4,100 job gain in the previous month. Six out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 11,600-job gain in Illinois statewide was mainly driven by increase in the metro areas.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in July was recorded for Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (10th to 2nd). In the 12-month growth league table, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline remained in the last place while Metro-East remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Trade, transportation & utilities had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (3,500 more jobs) in July, while Financial Activities had the greatest decline (500 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 12.50%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -3.09%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 0.80% job gain by July 2017 (32,900 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Professional & business services (26,400 more jobs at 3.46%) but the greatest decline would be for Financial Activities (6,900 less jobs at -2.53%).

See the full report (Released: 08/29/2016)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - September  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) was unchanged at 94.0 in July. This is attributed to the fact that the positive job growth in the manufacturing and the nonmanufacturing sector was offset by the negative job growth in the construction sector and the decline in retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 09/18/2016)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - August

According to the forecast for June 2017, Bloomington-Normal, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline and Peoria are likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 08/25/2016)






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