R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

03/30/2017
REAL Seminar Series

This week: Aparna Howlader and Renato Schwambach Vieira
More Info


Calendar

10/15/2016
WRSA Paper Deadline

Paper submission deadline for the WRSA 56th Annual Meeting in Santa Fe, NM
More Info


Calendar

11/08/2016
NARSC 2016

Annual North American Regional Science Conference
More Info




NEWS

News

University of Extremadura awards Dr. Hewings a Doctor Honoris Causa
09/22/2016

News

The First China-REAL Meeting (CREAL 2016)
January 14-15, 2016, Beijing, China

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.


News

R|E|A|L Virtual Yearbook




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3

Publications

Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2

Publications

Effects of a reduction in employers' Social Security contributions: Evidence from Spain
Campoy-Munoz, P.; Cardenete, M.; Delgado, M. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-1



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - February
Released: 2/28/2017

Reports

Illinois Job Index - February
Released: 2/28/2017

Reports

MSA Job Report -February
Released: 2/28/2017

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - March
Released: 03/18/2017

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - January
Released: 1/25/2017

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Spring 2017

NEXT SEMINAR: March 30th, 2017

When:

Thursdays 11:00am - noon


Where:

Mumford Hall, room 323


More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Aparna Howlader
(PhD Student, ACE/UIUC)

Long-term Persistent Impact of Federal Land Conservation Policies:
Evidence from Land Utilization Policies in 1933-1942


Renato Schwambach Vieira
(PhD Candidate, ACE/UIUC)

The Effects of a Transit Fare Exemption for the Elderly in Brazil




Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - February

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase between 2,600 and 25,100 by January 2018. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Education & health (13,100 more jobs), while the largest decline would happen for Manufacturing (17,500 less jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 37,800 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released: 2/28/2017)


Illinois Job Report - February

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois has recovered from the 2007 recession in terms of the number of total nonfarm jobs. It now has 37,800 more jobs than in December 2007.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) added 26,200 jobs in January, compared to a revised 8,600 employment gain in December.

- The Nation added 238,000 jobs at a rate of 0.16%, compared with a revised 155,000 job gain in December 2016. Growth in three sectors, namely Professional & business services (46,000 more jobs), Construction (40,000 more jobs) and Trade, transportation & utilities (35,000 more jobs) are the main reasons.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for Financial Activities, Professional & business services, and Leisure & hospitality.

- Illinois’s Construction sector experienced a significant job gain (6,800 more jobs at 3.23%) in January, so do Financial Activities (3,800 more jobs) and Trade, transportation & utilities (2,700 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs were Leisure & hospitality (3,500 less jobs), Professional & business services (3,100 less job) and Government (4,000 less jobs).

- Illinois’s official unemployment rate in January was 5.7%, while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.96%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 5.7%, another 305,700 jobs need to be created.

See the full report (Released: 2/28/2017)


MSA Job Report - February

- Illinois Rural area lost 25,200 jobs at -3.31% this month, compared to a revised 14,900-job gain in December 2016. In contrast, Metro added 26,800 jobs at 0.51% in January, compared to a revised 12,900 job loss in the previous month. Four out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 1,700 job loss in Illinois statewide was driven by increase in the Metro area.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in January was recorded for Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (9th to 1st). In the 12-month growth league table, Rockford dropped to the last place while Springfield climbed to the first place.

- In Chicago, Financial Activities had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (13,500 more jobs) in January, while Government had the greatest decline (10,000 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 12.01%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -5.07%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 1.33% job gain by January 2018 (55,100 less jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Financial Activities (32,800 more jobs at 11.54%) but the greatest decline would be for Professional & business services (13,200 less jobs at -1.73%).

See the full report (Released: 2/28/2017)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - March  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 98.7 in January from 97.3 in December. The increase is attributed to positive job growth in manufacturing, nonmanufacturing and construction and to the improvement of retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 03/18/2017)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - January

According to the forecast for November 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 12/25/2016)






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