R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory



REAL Seminar Series

This week: Frederick Alves, Alfredo Cartone and Thiago Nascimento
More Info


WRSA Paper Deadline

Paper submission deadline for the WRSA 56th Annual Meeting in Santa Fe, NM
More Info


NARSC 2016

Annual North American Regional Science Conference
More Info



University of Extremadura awards Dr. Hewings a Doctor Honoris Causa


The First China-REAL Meeting (CREAL 2016)
January 14-15, 2016, Beijing, China


REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.


R|E|A|L Virtual Yearbook



What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3


Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2


Effects of a reduction in employers' Social Security contributions: Evidence from Spain
Campoy-Munoz, P.; Cardenete, M.; Delgado, M. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-1



Illinois Economic Review - October
Released: 10/29/2016


Illinois Job Index - October
Released: 10/29/2016


MSA Job Report - October
Released: 10/29/2016


Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - November
Released: 11/18/2016


Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - October
Released: 10/25/2016

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.

REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2016

NEXT SEMINAR: December 6th, 2016


Tuesdays 3:00pm - 4:30pm


Mumford Hall, room 428

More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Frederick Alves
(PhD Student, Federal University of Vicosa)

Investment and Human Capital Externalities: Knowledge Spillovers

Alfredo Cartone
(PhD Student, University of Chieti-Pescara)

Spatial Quantile Regressions for the Analysis
of Regional Economic Convergence

Thiago Nascimento
(MSc Student, University of Sao Paulo)

Analysis of the Northeastern Constitutional Financing Fund (FNE)

Monitoring the IL Economy

Illinois Economic Review Report - October

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase between 13,100 and 20,700 by September 2017. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Professional & business services (26,600 more jobs), while the largest decline would happen for Manufacturing (16,200 less jobs).

- By August 2016, Chicago has recovered 387,200 jobs, or 137.82% to all the jobs it lost during the recession.

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 31,100 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released: 10/29/2016)

Illinois Job Report - October

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois has recovered from the 2007 recession in terms of the number of total nonfarm jobs. It now has 31,100 more jobs than in December 2007.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) added 13,900 jobs in September, compared to a revised 17,400 employment loss in August.

- The nation added 156,000 jobs at 0.11% in September, compared to a revised 167,000 job growth in August. Growth in three sectors, namely Professional & business services (67,000 more jobs), Education & health (29,000 more jobs) and Trade, transportation & utilities (24,000 more jobs) are the main reasons. Government (11,000 less jobs) and Manufacturing (14,000 less jobs) were the sectors that lost jobs at the national level in September.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for Financial Activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.

- Illinois’s Professional & business services sector experienced a significant job gain (5,100 more jobs at 0.54%) in September. Meanwhile, the Financial Activities sector experienced a significant job decline (1,300 less jobs at -0.34%).

- Illinois’s official unemployment rate in August was 5.5%, while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.57%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 5.5%, another 275,300 jobs need to be created.

See the full report (Released: 10/29/2016)

MSA Job Report - October

- Illinois Rural area added 4,400 jobs at 0.60% this month, compared to a revised 3,200 job loss in August 2016. In contrast, Metro added 3,000 jobs at 0.06% in September, compared to a revised 4,800 job loss in the previous month. Eight out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 7,400-job gain in Illinois statewide was driven by increases in both Metro and Rural areas. This growth also happened mainly outside Chicago, because Chicago Upstate only added 200 jobs while Downstate gained 7,200 jobs.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in September was recorded for Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (9th to 1st). In the 12-month growth league table, Bloomington-Normal dropped to the last place while Metro-East remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Professional & business services had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (4,800 more jobs) in September, while Leisure & hospitality had the greatest decline (2,100 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 12.17%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -3.91%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a -0.02% job loss by September 2017 (1,000 less jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Professional & business services (16,200 more jobs at 2.12%) but the greatest decline would be for Trade, transportation & utilities (12,900 less jobs at -1.56%).

See the full report (Released: 10/29/2016)

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - November  

 The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 96.8 in September from 94.1 in August. The increase is attributed to the job growth in the nonmanufacturing sector and to the improved retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 11/18/2016)

MSA Business Index and Forecast - October

According to the forecast for August 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline and Peoria are likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 10/25/2016)

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