R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

06/01/2017
14th EU-REAL Conference

Paper submission deadline for the 14th EU-REAL Conference in Coimbra, Portugal
More Info


Calendar

06/30/2017
28th PAPAIOS Meeting

Paper submission deadline for the 28th PAPAIOS Conference in Osaka, Japan
More Info


Calendar

07/01/2017
64th NARSC Conference

Paper submission deadline for the 64th NARSC in Vancouver, Canada
More Info




NEWS

News

Renato S. Vieira awarded the inaugural Werner Baer Fellowship
05/01/2017

News

Andre F. T. Avelino recognized as the Philip R. Israilevich Distinguished Research Fellow
04/20/2017

News

NARSC 2016 Graduate Student-Led Paper Competition: winners Esteban Lopez and Leonardo Bonilla
11/12/2016

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3

Publications

Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2

Publications

Effects of a reduction in employers' Social Security contributions: Evidence from Spain
Campoy-Munoz, P.; Cardenete, M.; Delgado, M. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-1



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - April
Released: 4/28/2017

Reports

Illinois Job Index - April
Released: 4/28/2017

Reports

MSA Job Report -April
Released: 2/28/2017

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - May
Released: 05/18/2017

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - January
Released: 1/25/2017

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2017

NEXT SEMINAR: TBA

When:

TBA


Where:

TBA


More Information and Schedule:

On this page



Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - April

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase between 15,500 and 57,200 by March 2018. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Education & health (17,500 more jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 50,100 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released: 4/28/2017)


Illinois Job Report - April

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois lost 8,900 jobs in March 2017. The sectors that gained jobs were Leisure & hospitality (4,200 more jobs), Other services (1,300 more jobs) and Trade, transportation & utilities (900 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs in March in Illinois were Professional & business services (3,600 less jobs), Government (-1,900 less job) and Construction (7,100 less jobs).

- In March, Illinois’s official unemployment rate was 4.9% while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.17%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 5.4%, another 305,100 jobs need to be created.

- The Nation added 98,000 jobs at a rate of 0.07% in March, compared with a revised 219,000 job gain in February 2017. Growth in three sectors, namely Education & health (16,000 more jobs), Professional & business services (56,000 more jobs) and Manufacturing (11,000 more jobs) were the main reasons. Trade, transportation & utilities and Information respectively lost 27,000 and 3,000 jobs.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) lost 18,400 jobs in March, compared to a revised 40,000 employment gain in February.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Professional & business services and Other Services.

See the full report (Released: 4/28/2017)


MSA Job Report - April

- Illinois Rural area lost 10,600 jobs at -1.42% in March, compared to a revised 5,800-job gain in February 2017. At the same time, Metro added 1,700 jobs at 0.03% in March, compared to a revised 9,000 job gain in the previous month. Six out of ten MSAs posted employment growth. Consequently, the 8,900-job loss in Illinois was mainly driven by decrease in the rural area.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in March was recorded for Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (10th to 3rd). In the 12-month growth league table, Rockford dropped to the last place while Kankakee remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Leisure & hospitality had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (4,200 more jobs) in March, while Construction had the greatest decline (5,300 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in March 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 12.04%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -3.14%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 1.13% job gain by March 2018 (46,700 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Financial Activities (14,500 more jobs at 5.00%) but the greatest decline would be for Government (1,400 less jobs at -0.31%).

See the full report (Released: 4/28/2017)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - May  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 96.0 in March from 95.5 in February. The increase is attributed to positive job growth in nonmanufacturing and to the improvement of retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 05/18/2017)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - January

According to the forecast for November 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 12/25/2016)






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