R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

01/19/2017
REAL Seminar Series

This week: Sandy Dall'erba
More Info


Calendar

10/15/2016
WRSA Paper Deadline

Paper submission deadline for the WRSA 56th Annual Meeting in Santa Fe, NM
More Info


Calendar

11/08/2016
NARSC 2016

Annual North American Regional Science Conference
More Info




NEWS

News

University of Extremadura awards Dr. Hewings a Doctor Honoris Causa
09/22/2016

News

The First China-REAL Meeting (CREAL 2016)
January 14-15, 2016, Beijing, China

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.


News

R|E|A|L Virtual Yearbook




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3

Publications

Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2

Publications

Effects of a reduction in employers' Social Security contributions: Evidence from Spain
Campoy-Munoz, P.; Cardenete, M.; Delgado, M. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-1



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - November
Released: 11/29/2016

Reports

Illinois Job Index - November
Released: 11/29/2016

Reports

MSA Job Report - November
Released: 11/29/2016

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - December
Released: 12/18/2016

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - November
Released: 11/25/2016

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Spring 2017

NEXT SEMINAR: January 19th, 2017

When:

Thursdays 11:00am - noon


Where:

Mumford Hall, room 323


More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Sandy Dall'erba
(Associate Professor, ACE/UIUC)

Welcome and Introduction to the Spring 2017 seminar series




Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - November

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase between 20,000 and 25,800 by October 2017. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Professional & business services (26,500 more jobs), while the largest decline would happen for Trade, transportation & utilities (6,700 less jobs).

- By September 2016, Chicago has recovered 384,600 jobs, or 136.91% to all the jobs it lost during the recession.

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 37,400 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released: 11/29/2016)


Illinois Job Report - November

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois has recovered from the 2007 recession in terms of the number of total nonfarm jobs. It now has 37,400 more jobs than in December 2007.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) added 33,100 jobs in October, compared to a revised 21,400 employment gain in September.

- The nation added 161,000 jobs at 0.11% in October, compared to a revised 191,000 job growth in September. Growth in three sectors, namely Government (19,000 more jobs), Education & health (52,000 more jobs) and Professional & business services (43,000 more jobs) are the main reasons.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for Financial Activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.

- Illinois’s Professional & business services sector experienced a significant job gain (4,800 more jobs at 0.51%) in October. Meanwhile, the Construction sector experienced a significant job loss (3,300 less jobs at -1.54%).

- Illinois’s official unemployment rate in September was 5.6%, while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.7%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 5.5%, another 282,200 jobs need to be created.

See the full report (Released: 11/29/2016)


MSA Job Report - November

- Illinois Rural area added 3,900 jobs at -0.52% this month, compared to a revised 6,900 job gain in September 2016. In contrast, Metro added 6,100 jobs at 0.11% in October, compared to a revised 4,600 job gain in the previous month. Seven out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 2,200 job gain in Illinois statewide was driven by increases in the Metro areas.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in October was recorded for Metro-East (8th to 1st). In the 12-month growth league table, Decatur dropped to the last place while Metro-East remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Education & health had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (2,700 more jobs) in October, while Construction had the greatest decline (2,100 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 12.03%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -3.17%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a -0.05% job loss by October 2017 (2,100 less jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Professional & business services (14,100 more jobs at 1.83 %) but the greatest decline would be for Financial Activities (12,400 less jobs at -4.62%).

See the full report (Released: 11/29/2016)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - December  

 The The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 98.8 in October from 95.2 in September. The increase is attributed to the job growth in the manufacturing sector and to the improved retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 12/18/2016)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - November

According to the forecast for September 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 11/25/2016)






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