R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory



14th EU-REAL Conference

September 4-5 in Coimbra, Portugal
More Info



7th Spanish Input-Output Analysis Conference Sep 18-20 in Merida, Mexico
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57th WRSA Conference

Paper submission deadline for the 57th WRSA in Pasadena, CA
More Info



Renato S. Vieira awarded the inaugural Werner Baer Fellowship


Andre F. T. Avelino recognized as the Philip R. Israilevich Distinguished Research Fellow


NARSC 2016 Graduate Student-Led Paper Competition: winners Esteban Lopez and Leonardo Bonilla


REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.



Do crop insurance programs preclude their recipients from adapting to new climate conditions?
Chen Z. and Dall'erba, S.
REAL 17-T-2


The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: many approaches, many limitations and a compromise
Avelino, A. and Hewings, G.
REAL 17-T-1


What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3



Illinois Economic Review - June
Released: 5/28/2017


Illinois Job Index - June
Released: 5/28/2017


MSA Job Report -June
Released: 5/28/2017


Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - August
Released: 08/18/2017


Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - January
Released: 1/25/2017

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.

REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2017






More Information and Schedule:

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Monitoring the IL Economy

Illinois Economic Review Report - June

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment decrease 7,600 jobs by May 2018. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Education & health (12,200 more jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 46,400 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released:6/28/2017)

Illinois Job Report - June

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois added 2,400 jobs in May 2017. The sectors that gained jobs were Education & health (3,700 more jobs), Construction (4,000 more jobs) and Information (900 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs in May in Illinois were Trade, transportation & utilities (3,700 less jobs), Government (2,500 less job) and Professional & business services (700 less jobs).

- In May, Illinois’s official unemployment rate was 4.6% while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.41%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 4.6%, another 328,500 jobs need to be created.

- The Nation added 138,000 jobs at a rate of 0.09% in May, compared with a revised 174,000-job gain in April 2016. There was growth in three sectors, namely Leisure & hospitality (31,000 more jobs), Professional & business services (38,000 more jobs) and Education & health (47,000 more jobs). Information lost 2,000 jobs, Trade, transportation & utilities lost 6,000 jobs, and Government lost 9,000 jobs.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) added 12,700 jobs in May after a revised 9,900-job gain in April 2016.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for Construction, Trade, transportation & utilities, Professional & business services, and Other services.

See the full report (Released: 6/28/2017)

MSA Job Report - June

- Illinois Rural area lost 5,300 jobs at -0.71% this month, compared to a revised 1,500-job gain in April 2017. At the same time, Metro added 7,700 jobs at 0.14% in May, compared to a revised 8,800-job loss in the previous month. Eight out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 2,400-job loss in Illinois was mainly driven by increase in the Metro area.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in May was recorded for Chicago (6th to 3rd). In the 12-month growth league table, Rockford remained in the last place while Kankakee remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Construction had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (3,700 more jobs) in May, while Trade, transportation & utilities had the greatest decline (2,700 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in March 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 11.67%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -3.03%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 1.18% job gain by May 2018 (48,800 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Professional & business services (26,700 more jobs at 3.49%) but the greatest decline would be for Trade, transportation & utilities (6,300 less jobs at -0.76%).

See the full report (Released: 6/28/2017)

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - August  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 96.9 in June from 96.8 in May. The rise is mainly attributed to the positive job growth in construction, nonmanufacturing and manufacturing in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 08/18/2017)

MSA Business Index and Forecast - January

According to the forecast for November 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 12/25/2016)

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