R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

08/30/2016
REAL Seminar Series

This week: Sandy Dall'Erba, Zhangliang Chen and Xinyue He
More Info


Calendar

11/08/2016
NARSC 2016

Annual North American Regional Science Conference
More Info




NEWS

News

The First China-REAL Meeting (CREAL 2016)
January 14-15, 2016, Beijing, China

News

REAL Poster Session 2014


News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.


News

R|E|A|L Virtual Yearbook




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2

Publications

Effects of a reduction in employers' Social Security contributions: Evidence from Spain
Campoy-Munoz, P.; Cardenete, M.; Delgado, M. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-1

Publications

A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of the Impact of Federally-Funded Investments in Science, Research and Technology in Arizona
Lim, J. and Dall'Erba, S.
REAL 15-T-11



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - July
Released: 07/29/2016

Reports

Illinois Job Index - July
Released: 07/29/2016

Reports

MSA Job Report - July
Released: 08/18/2016

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - June
Released: 08/18/2016

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - June
Released: 07/25/2016

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2016

NEXT SEMINAR: August 30th, 2016

When:

Tuesdays 3:00pm - 4:30pm


Where:

Mumford Hall, room 428


More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Professor Sandy Dall'Erba (ACE/REAL)

Welcome and Introduction


Zangliang Chen

Do crop insurance programs preclude their recipients
from adapting to new climate conditions?
(with Sandy Dall'Erba)


Xinyue He

Credit constraints, Export participation and
Innovation of heterogeneous firms




Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - July

- Illinois’ recovery has slowed in the last several months and forecasted growth for the next 12 months is well below prior year rates.

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase between 11,400 and 27,300. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Professional & business services (29,900 more jobs), while the largest decline would happen for Trade, transportation & utilities (8,000 less jobs).

- By June 2016, Chicago has recovered 376,400 jobs, or 134.99% to all the jobs it lost during the recession.

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 18,400 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released: 07/29/2016)


Illinois Job Report - July
Employment Chart IL

- Illinois has recovered from the 2007 recession in terms of the number of total nonfarm jobs. It now has 18,400 more jobs than in December 2007.

- The nation added 287,000 jobs at 0.20% in June, compared to a mere 11,000 job growth in May. Growth in four sectors, namely Leisure & hospitality (59,000 more jobs), Education & health (59,000 more jobs) and Information (44,000 more jobs) are the main reasons.

- The Information sector’s employment statistics at the national level fluctuates significantly in the past two months - it lost 39,000 jobs in May but added 44,000 jobs in June, while the monthly change in previous months is generally below 10,000.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW)’s total nonfarm employment fluctuates significantly in the past two months, and this is attributable to changes in Michigan (a 20,400 loss in May but 19,700 growth in June), Ohio (10,400 loss in May but no change in June) and Missouri (a 7,000 growth in May and 12,400 growth in June).

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Information, Other Services and Government.

- The Education & health sector experienced a significant job loss (7,300 less jobs) in June.

- Illinois’s official unemployment rate in April was 6.2%, while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.34%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 6.2%, another 216,600 jobs need to be created.

See the full report (Released: 07/29/2016)


MSA Job Report - July

- Illinois Rural area lost 5,600 jobs at -0.76% this month, compared to a revised 2,600 job gain in May 2016. In contrast, Metro added 3,400 jobs at 0.06% in June, compared to a revised 4,100 job loss in the previous month. Six out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 2,200-job loss in Illinois statewide was driven by decrease in the rural.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in June was recorded for Kankakee (10th to 2nd). In the 12 months growth league table, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline dropped to the last place while Metro-East remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Leisure & hospitality had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (3,200 more jobs), while Education & health had the greatest decline (2,800 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in Jan 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 12.43%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -2.95%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 1.16% job gain by June 2017 (47,700 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Professional & business services (36,000 more jobs at 4.73%) but the greatest decline would be for Financial Activities (4,100 less jobs at -1.49%).

See the full report (Released: 07/29/2016)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - June

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) slightly increased to 93.7 in June from 93.6 in May. The increase is attributed to the job growth in the construction sector and to the improved retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 08/18/2016)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - June

According to the forecast for May 2017, Bloomington-Normal, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline and Peoria are likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 07/25/2016)






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