R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

12/08/2017
REAL Seminar Series

This week: Yizhou Zhang and Sandy Dall'erba
More Info


Calendar

09/18/2017
7th SHAIO

7th Spanish Input-Output Analysis Conference Sep 18-20 in Merida, Mexico
More Info


Calendar

10/15/2017
57th WRSA Conference

Paper submission deadline for the 57th WRSA in Pasadena, CA
More Info




NEWS

News

Renato S. Vieira awarded the inaugural Werner Baer Fellowship
05/01/2017

News

Andre F. T. Avelino recognized as the Philip R. Israilevich Distinguished Research Fellow
04/20/2017

News

NARSC 2016 Graduate Student-Led Paper Competition: winners Esteban Lopez and Leonardo Bonilla
11/12/2016

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

Do crop insurance programs preclude their recipients from adapting to new climate conditions?
Chen Z. and Dall'erba, S.
REAL 17-T-2

Publications

The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: many approaches, many limitations and a compromise
Avelino, A. and Hewings, G.
REAL 17-T-1

Publications

What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - November
Released: 11/28/2017

Reports

Illinois Job Index - November
Released: 11/28/2017

Reports

MSA Job Report - November
Released: 11/28/2017

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - November
Released: 11/18/2017

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - November
Released: 11/11/2017

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2017

NEXT SEMINAR: December 8th

When:

Fridays, 2-3pm


Where:

323 Mumford Hall


More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Yizhou Zhang
(PhD Student, ACE)

Asymmetry and Threshold in Tax-Induced Migration of Top Scientists


Sandy Dall'erba
(Director, REAL)

On Deriving Reduced-Form Spatial Econometric Models from
Theory and Their Ws from Observed Flows: Example Based
on the Regional Knowledge Production Function




Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - November

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment decrease of 10,800 jobs by October 2018. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Education & health (10,000 more jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 55,200 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released:11/28/2017)


Illinois Job Report - November

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois added 3,400 jobs in October 2017. The sectors that gained jobs were Trade, transportation & utilities (2,800 more jobs), Education & health (2,200 more jobs) and Manufacturing (1,600 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs in October in Illinois were Government (1,800 less jobs), Construction (1,100 less job) and Information (600 less jobs).

- In October, Illinois’s official unemployment rate was 4.9% while its shadow unemployment rate was 10.60%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 4.9%, another 409,200 jobs need to be created.

- The Nation added 261,000 jobs at a rate of 0.18% in October, compared with a revised 18,000-job gain in September 2017. There were growth in three sectors, namely Professional & business services (50,000 more jobs), Education & health (41,000 more jobs) and Leisure & hospitality (106,000 more jobs).

- The RMW added 19,700 jobs in October after a revised 19,500-job gain in September 2017.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.

See the full report (Released: 11/28/2017)


MSA Job Report - November

- Illinois Rural area added 1,700 jobs at 0.23% this month, compared to a revised 9,800-job loss in September 2017. At the same time, Metro added 5,800 jobs at 0.03% in October, compared to a revised 1900-job gain in the previous month. Five out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 3,400-job loss in Illinois was driven by increases in both rural and Metro areas.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in October was recorded for Rockford (10th to 4th). In the 12-month growth league table, Springfield dropped to the last place while Kankakee remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Education & health had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (3,900 more jobs) in October, while Professional & business activities had the greatest decline (2,500 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 11.55%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -2.09%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 0.49% job gain by October 2018 (20,200 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Education & health (11,900 more jobs at 1.85%) but the greatest decline would be for Trade, transportation & utilities (5,200 less jobs at -0.63%).

See the full report (Released:11/28/2017)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - November  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 97.9 in September from 103.1 in Auguest. The decrease is mainly attributed to the negative construction job growth and to the decline of retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 11/18/2017)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - November

According to the forecast for September 2018, Decatur is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 11/11/2017)






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