R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory

CALENDAR

Calendar

10/20/2017
REAL Seminar Series

This week: Fernando Rubiera and Volodymyr Riaboshlyk
More Info


Calendar

09/18/2017
7th SHAIO

7th Spanish Input-Output Analysis Conference Sep 18-20 in Merida, Mexico
More Info


Calendar

10/15/2017
57th WRSA Conference

Paper submission deadline for the 57th WRSA in Pasadena, CA
More Info




NEWS

News

Renato S. Vieira awarded the inaugural Werner Baer Fellowship
05/01/2017

News

Andre F. T. Avelino recognized as the Philip R. Israilevich Distinguished Research Fellow
04/20/2017

News

NARSC 2016 Graduate Student-Led Paper Competition: winners Esteban Lopez and Leonardo Bonilla
11/12/2016

News

REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.




PUBLICATIONS

Publications

Do crop insurance programs preclude their recipients from adapting to new climate conditions?
Chen Z. and Dall'erba, S.
REAL 17-T-2

Publications

The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: many approaches, many limitations and a compromise
Avelino, A. and Hewings, G.
REAL 17-T-1

Publications

What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3



REPORTS

Reports

Illinois Economic Review - September
Released: 9/28/2017

Reports

Illinois Job Index - September
Released: 9/28/2017

Reports

MSA Job Report - September
Released: 8/28/2017

Reports

Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - October
Released: 10/18/2017

Reports

Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - October
Released: 10/11/2017

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.






REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2017

NEXT SEMINAR: October 20th

When:

Fridays, 2-3pm


Where:

323 Mumford Hall


More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Fernando Rubiera Morollon
(Associate Professor, University of Oviedo)

Analysis of the economic consequences of urban sprawl in
the Spanish cities: urban sprawl and fiscal burden


Volodymyr Riaboshlyk
(Fulbright Visiting Scholar, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy)

An Extension of the Leontief Inverse Analysis for Upgrading
the Accuracy of Economic Forecasting




Monitoring the IL Economy



Illinois Economic Review Report - September

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase 3,500 jobs by August 2018. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Professional & business services (14,200 more jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 58,600 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released:9/28/2017)


Illinois Job Report - September

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois lost 3,700 jobs in August 2017. The sectors that gained jobs were Trade, transportation & utilities (6,600 more jobs), Education & health (3,400 more jobs) and Construction (2,000 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs in August in Illinois were Leisure & hospitality (9,900 less jobs), Professional & business services (3,300 less job) and Manufacturing (3,000 less jobs)

- In August, Illinois’s official unemployment rate was 5.0% while its shadow unemployment rate was 10.63%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 5.0%, another 405,300 jobs need to be created.

- The Nation added 156,000 jobs at a rate of 0.11% in August, compared with a revised 189,000-job gain in July 2017. There were growth in three sectors, namely Construction (28,000 more jobs), Professional & business services (40,000 more jobs) and Manufacturing (36,000 more jobs).

- The RMW lost 400 jobs in August after a revised 35,300-job gain in July 2017.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for Financial activities, Professional & business services and Other services.

See the full report (Released: 9/28/2017)


MSA Job Report - September

- Illinois Rural area lost 2,200 jobs at -0.30% this month, compared to a revised 100-job gain in July 2017. At the same time, Metro lost 1,500 jobs at -0.03% in August, compared to a revised 500-job gain in the previous month. Five out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 3,700-job loss in Illinois was mainly driven by decreases in both rural and Metro areas.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in August was recorded for Decatur (9th to 2nd). In the 12-month growth league table, Metro-East dropped to the last place while Bloomington-Normal climbed to the first place.

- In Chicago, Construction had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (1,700 more jobs) in August, while Manufacturing had the greatest decline (1,200 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 11.72%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -2.10%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 1.39% job gain by August 2018 (57,700 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Professional & business services (27,600 more jobs at 3.57%) but the greatest decline would be for Manufacturing (3,300 less jobs at -0.95%).

See the full report (Released: 9/28/2017)


The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - October  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 101.2 in August from 98.1 in July. The rise is mainly attributed to the positive construction job growth and to the improvement of retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 10/18/2017)


MSA Business Index and Forecast - October

According to the forecast for August 2018, Decatur and Peoria are likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 10/11/2017)






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