R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory



REAL Seminar Series

This week: Zhangliang Chen
More Info


WRSA Paper Deadline

Paper submission deadline for the WRSA 56th Annual Meeting in Santa Fe, NM
More Info


NARSC 2016

Annual North American Regional Science Conference
More Info



University of Extremadura awards Dr. Hewings a Doctor Honoris Causa


The First China-REAL Meeting (CREAL 2016)
January 14-15, 2016, Beijing, China


REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.


R|E|A|L Virtual Yearbook



What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3


Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2


Effects of a reduction in employers' Social Security contributions: Evidence from Spain
Campoy-Munoz, P.; Cardenete, M.; Delgado, M. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-1



Illinois Economic Review - January
Released: 1/29/2017


Illinois Job Index - January
Released: 1/29/2017


MSA Job Report -January
Released: 1/29/2017


Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - February
Released: 02/18/2017


Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - January
Released: 1/25/2017

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.

REAL Seminar Series - Spring 2017

NEXT SEMINAR: February 23rd, 2017


Thursdays 11:00am - noon


Mumford Hall, room 323

More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Zhangliang Chen
(PhD Student, Dept of Agricultural and Consumer Economics)

The Ricardian model of climate change impact meets
the Ricardian model of interregional trade: theory and evidence

Monitoring the IL Economy

Illinois Economic Review Report - January

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment decrease between 34,800 and 9,200 by December 2017. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Education & health (13,300 more jobs), while the largest decline would happen for Manufacturing (15,500 less jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 17,400 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released: 1/29/2017)

Illinois Job Report - January

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois has recovered from the 2007 recession in terms of the number of total nonfarm jobs. It now has 17,400 more jobs than in December 2007.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) added 2,600 jobs in December, compared to a revised 25,100 employment gain in November.

- The nation added 156,000 jobs at 0.11% in December, compared with a revised 204,000 job gain in November 2016. Growth in three sectors, namely Leisure & hospitality (24,000 more jobs), Education & health (70,000 more jobs) and Trade, transportation & utilities (24,000 more jobs) are the main reasons.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for Education & health and Leisure & hospitality.

- Illinois’s Financial activities sector experienced a job gain (1,600 more jobs at 0.43%) in December, so does Information (300 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs were Education & health (5,400 less jobs), Professional & business services (3,600 less job) and Construction (3,200 less jobs).

- Illinois’s official unemployment rate in November was 5.7%, while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.88%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 5.7%, another 286,800 jobs need to be created.

See the full report (Released: 1/29/2017)

MSA Job Report - January

- Illinois Rural area lost 7,800 jobs at -1.05% this month, compared to a revised 6,600 job gain in November 2016. It was by far the greatest monthly decline in 2016. In contrast, Metro lost 8,900 jobs at -0.13% in December, compared to a revised 11,100 job gain in the previous month. Four out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 16,700 job loss in Illinois statewide was driven by decreases in both the Metro and Rural areas.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in December was recorded for Peoria (10th to 5th). In the 12-month growth league table, Peoria dropped to the last place while Metro-East remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Government had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (2,200 more jobs) in December, while Professional & business services had the greatest decline (4,100 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 11.29%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -3.61%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a -1.22% job loss by December 2017 (50,000 less jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Education & health (7,500 more jobs at 1.19%) but the greatest decline would be for Professional & business services (22,000 less jobs at -2.89%).

See the full report (Released: 1/29/2017)

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - February  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 96.9 in December from 96.0 in November. The rise is attributed mainly to an increase in nationwide economic activities measured by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).

See the full report (Released: 02/18/2017)

MSA Business Index and Forecast - January

According to the forecast for November 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 12/25/2016)

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