R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory



REAL Seminar Series

This week: Nikoleta Kastania and Lucas Teixeira
More Info


15th EU-REAL Meeting

Paper submission deadline for the 15th EU-REAL Conference in Palermo, Italy
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65th NARSC

Paper submission deadline for the 65th NARSC in San Antonio, TX
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Andre F. T. Avelino received an Academic Exelence Award from the Graduate College


Dr. Norihiko Yamano received his PhD in the December Convocation cerimony


Renato S. Vieira awarded the inaugural Werner Baer Fellowship


Andre F. T. Avelino recognized as the Philip R. Israilevich Distinguished Research Fellow


REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.



Do crop insurance programs preclude their recipients from adapting to new climate conditions?
Chen Z. and Dall'erba, S.
REAL 17-T-2


The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: many approaches, many limitations and a compromise
Avelino, A. and Hewings, G.
REAL 17-T-1


What Factors Motivate Foreign Countries to Initiate an Antidumping Investigation against China?
Xiaolei Wang
REAL 16-T-3



Illinois Economic Review - March
Released: 3/28/2018


Illinois Job Index - March
Released: 3/28/2018


MSA Job Report - March
Released: 3/28/2018


Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - April
Released: 04/18/2018


Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - March
Released: 3/11/2018

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.

REAL Seminar Series - Spring 2018

NEXT SEMINAR: April 27th


Friday, 2:00-3:00pm


323 Mumford Hall

More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Nikoleta Kastania
(MSc Student, Finance/UIUC)


Lucas Iten Teixeira
(PhD Student, Fundacao Getulio Vargas / Central Bank of Brazil)

Regional impact of local credit on consumption

International Network


Monitoring the IL Economy

Illinois Economic Review Report - March

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment decrease of 2,100 jobs by February 2019. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Education & health (13,600 more jobs).

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 110,000 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released:3/28/2018)

Illinois Job Report - March

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois added 15,300 jobs in February 2018. The sectors that gained jobs were Leisure & hospitality (3,400 more jobs), Trade, transportation & utilities (6,300 more jobs) and Government (6,600 more jobs). The sectors that lost jobs in February in Illinois were Leisure & hospitality (1,700 less jobs), Other Services (900 less job) and Information (300 less jobs)..

- In February, Illinois’s official unemployment rate was 4.7% while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.58%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 4.8%, another 361,200 jobs need to be created.

- The Nation added 326,000 jobs at a rate of 0.22% in February, compared with a revised 176,000-job gain in January 2018. There were growth in three sectors, namely Construction (65,000 more jobs), Professional & business services (55,000 more jobs) and Trade, transportation & utilities (74,000 more jobs).

- The RMW added 52,200 jobs in February after a revised 35,900-job gain in January 2018.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Information, Professional & business services, and Other Services.

See the full report (Released: 3/28/2018)

MSA Job Report - March

- Illinois Rural area lost 3,200 jobs at -0.43% this month, compared to a revised 9,600-job loss in January 2018. At the same time, Metro added 18,500 jobs at 0.35% in February, compared to a revised 8,300-job gain in the previous month. Eight out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 15,800-job gain in Illinois was driven by increase in Metro areas.

- The most remarkable upward moves in February were recorded for Bloomington-Normal (9th to 1st) and Kankakee (10th to 2nd). In the 12-month growth league table, Springfield remained in the last place while Rockford remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Government had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (6,800 more jobs) in February, while Leisure & hospitality had the greatest decline (2,300 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 11.65%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -2.21%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 0.65% job gain by February 2019 (27,100 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Trade, transportation & utilities (14,700 more jobs) but the greatest decline would be for Professional & business services (26,000).

See the full report (Released:3/28/2018)

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) 

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 99.0 in December from 97.1 in November. The increase is mainly attributed to the positive manufacturing and nonmanufacturing job growth and an improvement in nationwide economic activities measured by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).

See the full report (Released: 04/18/2018)

MSA Business Index and Forecast - March

 According to the forecast for January 2018, Decatur and Springfield are likely to perform worse over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare more favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 3/11/2018)

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