R | E | A | L

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory



REAL Seminar Series

This week: Hope Michelson, Andre Avelino, Yulong Zhou and Ana Medina
More Info


WRSA Paper Deadline

Paper submission deadline for the WRSA 56th Annual Meeting in Santa Fe, NM
More Info


NARSC 2016

Annual North American Regional Science Conference
More Info



University of Extremadura awards Dr. Hewings a Doctor Honoris Causa


The First China-REAL Meeting (CREAL 2016)
January 14-15, 2016, Beijing, China


REAL's 25th Anniversary
Wed, Nov 12th, 2014
Washington D.C.


R|E|A|L Virtual Yearbook



Modeling Regional Productive Performance Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier Approach: New Evidence for Europe (1995-2007)
Ramajo J. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-2


Effects of a reduction in employers' Social Security contributions: Evidence from Spain
Campoy-Munoz, P.; Cardenete, M.; Delgado, M. and Hewings, G.
REAL 16-T-1


A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of the Impact of Federally-Funded Investments in Science, Research and Technology in Arizona
Lim, J. and Dall'Erba, S.
REAL 15-T-11



Illinois Economic Review - September
Released: 09/29/2016


Illinois Job Index - September
Released: 09/29/2016


MSA Job Report - September
Released: 09/29/2016


Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - October
Released: 10/18/2016


Illinois MSA Indices and Forecasts - September
Released: 09/25/2016

Welcome to R|E|A|L

The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory focuses on the development and use of analytical models for urban and regional forecasting and economic development.

REAL Seminar Series - Fall 2016

NEXT SEMINAR: October 25th, 2016


Tuesdays 3:00pm - 4:30pm


Mumford Hall, room 428

More Information and Schedule:

On this page

Hope C. Michelson
(Assistant Professor, Dept of Agricultural and Consumer Economics)

Agricultural Productivity and Child Nutrition

Andre F. T. Avelino
(PhD Student, ACE)

Revisiting the Temporal Leontief Inverse:
New insights on regional structural change

Yulong Zhou
(PhD Student, Renmin University of China)

Social Capital, Resource Capture and Rural Poverty
Reduction: Evidence from China

Ana Medina Lopez
(Associate Professor, University Rey Juan Carlos)

Measuring socio-economic impacts through Input-Output
and dynamic CGE modelling approaches

Monitoring the IL Economy

Illinois Economic Review Report - September

- The 12-month forecast shows that Illinois is likely to experience an employment increase between 5,800 and 13,500. The greatest increase is likely to occur in Professional & business services (17,500 more jobs), while the largest decline would happen for Manufacturing (21,400 less jobs).

- By July 2016, Chicago has recovered 380,400 jobs, or 135.39% to all the jobs it lost during the recession.

- The state of Illinois now has a net gain of 23,500 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Given Illinois’ economic performance of late, recovery to the prior peak (adjusted for changes in labor force participation and population growth) recorded in 2000 within five years would seem feasible.

See the full report (Released: 09/29/2016)

Illinois Job Report - September

Employment Chart IL

- Illinois has recovered from the 2007 recession in terms of the number of total nonfarm jobs. It now has 23,500 more jobs than in December 2007.

- Rest of Midwest (RMW) lost 9,000 jobs in August, compared to a revised 48,900 employment growth in July.

- The nation added 151,000 jobs at 0.10% in August, compared to a revised 275,000 job growth in July. Growth in three sectors, namely Leisure & hospitality (29,000 more jobs), Education & health (39,000 more jobs) and Trade, transportation & utilities (34,000 more jobs) are the main reasons. Manufacturing was the only sector that lost jobs (14,000 less jobs at -0.11%) at the national level in August.

- The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Information and Trade, transportation & utilities.

- Illinois’s Leisure & hospitality sector experienced a significant job gain (3,400 more jobs at 0.57%) in August. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing sector experienced a significant job decline (4,400 less jobs at -0.77%).

- Illinois’s official unemployment rate in August was 5.5%, while its shadow unemployment rate was 9.51%. To bring the two rates together, in other words bringing down shadow unemployment rate to 5.5%, another 254,000 jobs need to be created.

See the full report (Released: 09/29/2016)

MSA Job Report - September

- Illinois Rural area lost 4,700 jobs at -0.64% this month, compared to a revised 5,500 job gain in July 2016. In contrast, Metro lost 3,500 jobs at -0.07% in August, compared to a revised 9,100 job gain in the previous month. Five out of ten MSAs posted positive growth. Consequently, the 8,200-job loss in Illinois statewide was driven by decreases in both the metro and rural areas.

- In the monthly MSA growth league table, the most remarkable upward move in August was recorded for Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (10th to 1st). In the 12-month growth league table, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline remained in the last place while Metro-East remained in the first place.

- In Chicago, Leisure & hospitality had the greatest monthly job-gain among all sectors (5,600 more jobs) in August, while Trade, transportation & utilities had the greatest decline (4,400 less jobs). Since the job recovery resumed in January 2010 in Illinois, Chicago Upstate has shown an average growth rate of 12.36%, which is the highest among all the IL MSAs; Bloomington-Normal has experienced the lowest average growth rate, -4.41%.

- The 12-month forecasts show that Chicago is likely to experience a 0.56% job gain by August 2017 (22,900 more jobs). The greatest 12-month growth in Chicago is likely to happen for Leisure & hospitality (14,100 more jobs at 3.38%) but the greatest decline would be for Manufacturing (6,500 less jobs at -1.92%).

See the full report (Released: 09/29/2016)

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) - October  

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) slightly increased to 94.6 in August from 94.4 in July. The increase is attributed to the improved retail activities in the Chicago area.

See the full report (Released: 10/18/2016)

MSA Business Index and Forecast - September

According to the forecast for July 2017, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline is likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

See the full report (Released: 09/25/2016)

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